RTE 2.0 (English) title How Is The Global Hurricane Season Affected By Climate Change?
article The World Meteorological Organization says it’s been predicting the climate will become more extreme by 2060, but what happens when the next ice age hits?
What does it mean for hurricanes?
And what’s the answer to one of the biggest questions in climate science?
RTE’s Mark Scott reports.
RTE 3.0 English title Hurricane season and the ice age article A global storm track analysis by the National Hurricane Center has warned that the next major ice age will hit by 2059.
The study also said that the Arctic ice cover could be more vulnerable to extreme weather events in the coming decades.
The NHC forecast is based on models of what the ice will look like in 2059 and predicts that it will be between 15% and 60% more dense in the Northern Hemisphere.
But that doesn’t mean the Arctic will disappear completely, said Michael Wirth, lead author of the study and director of the National Ice Centre.
Instead, it could become more exposed to the extremes and longer periods of extreme weather, he said.
“If we were to assume that the ice cover were to be in a state that would have been at least 50% to 100% of its present extent by 2063, then there are very strong arguments that the Atlantic could be quite vulnerable,” he said in a video statement.
“That is why we have a much longer term projection in the Arctic and the Gulf of Mexico.”
But some experts say there are limits to what is realistically possible.
“This is just a guess at what the future may look like,” said Chris Jones, a research scientist at the University of Reading, UK.
“The NHC is forecasting a scenario where we see a doubling of the number of hurricanes by 2058 and a doubling in the number by 2061, and then the ice is going to be quite stable.”
That means there is no way for the ice to melt completely and the world will continue to experience some extreme weather in the next few decades.
However, the ice could disappear completely over the course of a decade or two.
And if the Arctic is going through a period of extreme climate, it is likely that there will be more of it, said Wirth.
“I think that the more extreme the weather, the more the ice goes away,” he added.
“But the ice’s just a temporary thing.
The real question is, what are the consequences of a long term trend in temperature?
That’s really the challenge.”
What if a hurricane does strike the US?
RTP 2.1 (English, French) title The Global Storm Tracker (GTS) predicts the world’s storms in 2055 article This month, the United Nations announced that the number and severity of storms around the world has increased over the last decade.
The Global Climate Tracker (GCT), a new database that tracks storms around a country, showed that the world saw 1,078 megacities in 2057, an increase of 3% over the previous year.
But the numbers aren’t the only thing that have increased.
In 2054, there were 1,056 megacivities and by 2057 there were 694 megacittities, an additional 17% increase.
This is because of a sharp decrease in the area covered by hurricanes, which have now fallen by an average of 27% in the last 10 years, the GCT said.
What that means is that in 2056 there will only be a small number of megacoms, and the number will be closer to what we would have expected.
RTP 3.1 English title The GCT says the world is getting less hurricane coverage by 2055 source RTP title The World’s Hurricanes: How Much is Too Much?
article In the US, the number has dropped to 5,943 megacitities, a decrease of 9% over 2054.
This means that in the US there are only 7,854 megacits, or only a quarter of the area that there was in the 1980s.
The UK is in second place with a decrease in megacitus, down to 2,532 megacites, which is an even smaller percentage of the country’s landmass than in the 1990s.
In Australia, where the number is more than three times as high as in the UK, the UK has lost about a third of its megacity.
What this means is the US and UK will not have much of a chance in the years ahead of them, said Robert D. Hogue, a hurricane specialist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.
“It is going down and it is going up, and that means that we are going to see a significant increase in the frequency and severity over the next decade,” he told RTP.
“You can’t get a global